Expression of commitment

Expression of commitment of Pierluigi Calanca

Expression of commitment in COST action 734 "Climate change and variability impact on European agriculture - CLIVAGRI"

1. Title of contribution
ART contribution to CLIVAGRI in WG3

2. Proposer and contact
Dr. Pierluigi Calanca
Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon (ART)
Air Pollution and Climate Group
Reckenholzstrasse 191
8046 Zürich, Switzerland
pierluigi.calanca@art.admin.ch

3. Objective of MoU to be addressed
Building of climate scenarios for the next few decades

4. Contributions

• Member of WG3
• Scientific contribution to the following issues:
• Development of regional scenarios for future agroclimatic conditions (WG 3)
• Risk assessment on different time scales (WG 4)

5. Deliverables addressed
ART will address the following deliverables:

• collection of future climatic scenarios for various European areas;
• determination of the current and future impacts on various European agricultural areas;
• formulation of specific recommendations and assessments for policy makers, extension services, farmers and other end-users;
• definition of warning systems.

6. Timetable
Year 1: Review of existing EU wide climate change impacts studies in agriculture and assessment of the availability and quality of climate scenarios
Year 2-3: Preparation of specific scenarios for agroclimatic indices and distribution of new information through meetings and focused workshop. Publication of results in report and scientific papers.
Year 4: Dissemination of results

7. Resources
Approximate 2 man-months per year will go into the tasks. 1 man-month per year will be contributed by Pierluigi Calanca, and the rest from other scientific staff. Depending on acceptance, additional resources will be made available through projects financed by the Swiss State Secretariat for Education and Research (SER).

8. Assurance
The necessary resources to perform the task will be available.

9. Foreseen collaboration

• Collaboration with the following institutes is expected:
• Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), Zurich, Switzerland;
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, U.K.;
• Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, Switzerland.

10. Previous experience
ART has been dealing with the impact of climate change on agricultural systems for the past decade, both with experimental and modelling approaches. Pierluigi Calanca has been project leader within the National Centre of Competence in Research on Climate (NCCR Climate), the national programme on climate change funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF). He has also contributed to COST 627.

11. References

• Torriani, D., P. Calanca, S. Schmid, M. Beniston and J. Fuhrer, 2007: Potential effects of changes in mean climate and climate variability on the yield of winter and spring crops grown in Switzerland. Climate Research, in press.
• Calanca, P.: Climate change and drought occurrence in the Alpine region: how severe are becoming the extremes. Global and Planetary Change, in press, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.001
• Jasper,K., P. Calanca, and Fuhrer, J., 2006: Changes in summertime soil water patterns in complex terrain due to climatic change . Journal of Hydrology 327, 550– 563
• Dueri, S., P. Calanca and J. Fuhrer, 2007: Climate change affects farm nitrogen loss – A Swiss case study with a dynamic farm model. l. Agricultural Systems 93, 191–214.
• Calanca, P., and J. Fuhrer, 2005: Swiss Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Grassland Production and Its Economic Value. In: Haurie, A., and Viguier, L. (Eds), The Coupling of Climate and Economic Dynamics: Essays on Integrated Assessment. Advances in Global Change Research 22, Springer, Dordrecht, 341-353.
• Calanca, P., 2004: Interannual variability of summer mean soil moisture conditions in Switzerland during the twentieth century: A look using a stochastic soil moisture model. Water Resources Research, 40, W12502, doi:10.1029/2004WR003254.