Expression of commitment

Expression of commitment in COST action 734 "Climate change and variability impact on European agriculture - CLIVAGRI"

1. Title of contribution

AU-DJF contribution to CLIVAGRI in WG4

2. Proposer and contact

Res. prof. Jørgen E. Olesen
Aarhus University, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences (AU-DJF)
Department of Agroecology and Environment
Research Centre Foulum
Box 50, 8830 Tjele, Denmark
E-mail: JorgenE.Olesen@agrsci.dk

3. Objective of MoU to be addressed

Definition of harmonised criteria to evaluate the impacts of climate change and variability on agriculture.

4. Contributions

Chairman of WG4.
Scientific contribution to the following issues:
•    Definition of indices and models for climate change and variability analysis (WG 1)
•    Risk assessment of several European agricultural areas (WG 4)

5. Deliverables addressed

AU-DJF will address the following deliverables:
•    standardisation  and  harmonisation  of  criteria  to  evaluate  the  impact  of  climate change and variability on agricultural activity;
•    determination of  the current and future  impacts on various European agricultural areas;
•    determination of critical thresholds;
•    formulation  of  specific  recommendations  and  assessments  for  policy  makers, extension services, farmers and other end-users.

6. Timetable

Year 1: Collating and reviewing existing EU wide climate change impacts studies in agriculture.
Year 2-3: Performing additional analyses and collating new information through meetings and focused workshop. Publication of results in report and scientific papers.
Year 4: Dissemination of results

7. Resources

Approximate 4 man-months per year will go into the tasks, of this 1 man-month per year will be contributed by Jørgen E. Olesen, and the rest from other scientific staff at AU-DJF.

8. Assurance

The necessary resources to perform the task will be available.

9. Foreseen collaboration

Collaborations with the following institutes are expected: University of Florence, JRC-Ispra, UPM Spain, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry in Brno.

10. Previous experience

AU-DJF has a broad experience in analysing effects of climatic variability and climate change on crops and cropping systems, both using experimental and modelling approaches. Jørgen E. Olesen has been involved in assessing impact of climate change on European agricultural systems and the interaction with other sectors as well, in particular with relation to water use and availability. He was a contributing author to the third IPCC WG-II assessment report, and lead author for the IPCC WG-II fourth assessment report with particular emphasis on European aspects. He has contributed to several national governmental committees on analysis of impacts and adaptation to climate change.

11. References

• Halsnæs, K., Kühl, J. & Olesen, J.E. (2007). Turning climate change information into economic and health impacts. Climatic Change 81 (in press).
• Olesen, J.E. (2005). Climate change and CO2 effects on productivity of Danish agricultural systems. Journal of Crop Improvement 13, 257-274.
• Olesen, J.E. & Bindi, M. (2002). Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. European Journal of Agronomy 16, 239-262.
• Olesen, J.E., Carter, T.R., Diaz-Ambrona, C.H., Fronzek, S., Heidmann, T., Hickler, T., Holt, T., Minguez, M.I., Morales, P., Palutikov, J., Quemada, M., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Rubæk, G., Sau, F., Smith, B. & Sykes, M. (2007). Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Climatic Change 81 (in press).
• Olesen, J.E., Rubæk, G., Heidmann, T., Hansen, S. & Børgesen, C.D. (2004). Effect of climate change on greenhouse gas emission from arable crop rotations. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 70, 147-160.