Working Group 2

The  last  few  decades  have  been  characterised  by  a  variation  of  climatic  conditions.  Both mean values and statistical variability have been affected. Current trends can be described using  both  re-analysis  data  and  collecting  historical  series  of  ground-level  data.  A specification of data requirement will be provided by WG1 and WG4, from the perspective of defining  the  responses  of  specific  crops  and  characterising  the  underlying  biological, chemical or physical processes. Spatial and temporal resolution of data will be assessed in order to evaluate possible application on the local or global scale.
 
Agroclimatic indices and simulation models will be applied and the results will be analysed to define past and present trends of climate in various European agricultural regions. Probability levels will be determined in order to evaluate the statistical significance. Available data will be analysed  for  the whole  series, but  also  sub-periods  (decade) will be  taken  into  account  to evaluate the presence of trends during shorter periods. Statistical analysis will be carried out to precisely quantify the probable variation of agroclimatic conditions and critical thresholds and  to  determine  their  significance.  At  the  same  time,  the  modification  of  interannual variability will be analysed. In this case the whole series will be divided into shorter periods (decade,  five-year  period),  also  using  the  moving  average  method,  and  the  mean  and deviation  patterns  will  be  calculated.  Thus,  the  trend  of  these  patterns  during  the  whole series will be considered in order to evaluate increasing or decreasing trends of hazards.
 
Time-series  statistical  analysis  will  be  also  performed  to  evaluate  the  homogeneity  of  the historical  data  and  to  precisely  separate  the  climate  change  effect  from  other  sources  of variability (cyclical variation of climate patterns etc.). Numerical weather models can be used to  provide  small-scale  data,  according  to  the  geo-topographical  conditions  of  studied agricultural areas. The possible application of weather generators and the support of remote sensing  techniques,  such  as  atmospheric  temperature  observed  by  satellite,  vegetation cover/indices, will be also taken into account in order to develop and complete WG2 planned activity.

Working Group 2.1: Application for remote sensing

How the study of climate change and variability impact on agriculture can benefit from space.
Analysis of the role of satellite data in the suitable models and indices for assessing the impact of climate change and variability on European agriculture.
The main deliverable of WG2.1 is the "Evaluation and assessment of the use of satellite data for agro-climate research and in particular their integration into high-quality, globally-integrated climate products".

Deliverables
Key deliverables of WG2 will be:

• a  collection  of  climatic  data  for  several  European  regions  according  to agroclimatic indices, simulation models and hazards;
• verification  of  data  and  solving  of  problems  arising  from  missing,  non-homogeneous and erroneous data;
• assessment of required resolution for practical agroclimatological applications as a function of variables, areas and agricultural aspects;
• definition of statistical protocols to analyse the climatic series, in order to evaluate mean and variability patterns;
• determination  of  current  trend  of  agroclimatic  indices,  simulation model  outputs and hazards;
• determination of interannual variability of agroclimatic conditions.

Working Group 2 Members