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Working Group 4
Risk Assessment and Foreseen Impacts on Agriculture.
At the beginning of this COST Action activity, WG4 will focus on the harmonisation of criteria to evaluate the possible impacts from climate change and variability on agricultural activity. These criteria will be disseminated to the other WGs. Afterwards, on the basis of the results obtained by WG2 and WG3 the current and future trends of agroclimatic indices and simulation model outputs will be analysed in order to evaluate the hazard levels for agriculture and the possible consequences for natural resources. Consequences in terms of production quality and quantity, biological and physical damages and seasonal changes will be mainly considered. Risk assessment will be carried out bearing in mind that European agriculture is based on highly developed farming techniques, where the sensitivity to climatic hazards is greater than in traditional farming. Critical thresholds will be determined according to the characteristics of agriculture in European agricultural areas.
Based on this, possible modification of crop protection methods, irrigation programmes, cultivation techniques, harvesting, storage and commercialisation strategies will be evaluated. Economic aspects will also be considered. Appropriate links and interfaces will be established with agronomists, plant pathologists, economists, etc. and related international scientific societies to better assess the required adaptations.
Results will be analysed with a view of implementing support systems based on information technologies to disseminate advice and early warnings to the potential users: policy makers, extension services, farmers, plant breeders. Insurance companies are interested in the results of these analyses and they will be involved in the evaluation of future perspectives of agricultural risk insurance. Risk maps and other methods (graphics, tables, etc.) will be produced to provide end-users with a detailed description of current and future impacts.
Deliverables
Key deliverables of WG4 will be:
- standardisation and harmonisation of criteria to evaluate the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural activity;
- determination of the current and future impacts on various European agricultural areas;
- determination of critical thresholds;
- formulation of specific recommendations and assessments for policy makers, extension services, farmers and other end-users;
- definition of warning systems.
